InvigoratEU Management Handbook (D1.1, V2)
The Management Handbook structures the collaboration of the consortium, the Scientific Lead (SL) and the Project Coordinator (PC) in the project InvigoratEU. First, it gives an overview of the general information of the project and the important dates during the project. It informs about the rules and procedures for meetings, such as the General Assembly and the three main conferences. Since reporting is of high importance in the project, the legal points as well as the InvigoratEU specific procedures are described here. Regarding the budget, the budget flexibility as well as amendments, the relevant points from the grant agreement are summarized and complemented by the concrete procedures of InvigoratEU. The handbook contains information on data management, which will be expanded by the data management plan. As the dissemination of the project’s results is highly relevant, the manual contains information on publications and the acknowledgement of EU funding/disclaimer. To ensure the success of the project, a quality assurance, risk assessment and contingency plan was prepared. Moreover, information is provided on the digital infrastructure set up by the Coordinator. In addition to the information, the manual contains practical advice on project procedures and communication to ensure efficient cooperation.
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InvigoratEU Report on EU´s Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy Toolbox (D3.3)
The Report on EU’s Enlargement & Neighbourhood Policy Toolbox by Frank Schimmelfennig and Levan Kakhishvili critically examines the European Union’s (EU) enlargement and neighbourhood policy, focusing on its existing tools, objectives, and necessary reforms. The analysis aims to inform future policy development to enhance the EU’s resilience, particularly in light of evolving geopolitical contexts and the ongoing integration challenges within the Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans. The report divides the evolution of the EU enlargement policy into three phases: the “big bang” enlargement of 1990-2004, protracted enlargement of 2005-2021, and geopolitical enlargement since 2022. It has been found that different sets of factors have determined the variation of the EU strategy for enlargement across the timeframe. These factors include the domestic EU context, the progress of transformation in aspirant countries, and geopolitical considerations. although the policy of conditionality has had profound positive effects on democratization and economic liberalization of Central and Eastern European countries, it has also been associated with undesirable effects. Surveying these effects on the political and economic transformation of the EU aspirant countries reveals areas for improvement for the future of the EU enlargement strategy. Finally, the report recommends strengthening conditionality mechanisms, enhancing civil society engagement, addressing regional disparities, promoting public engagement and adopting a differentiated integration model, to invigorate the EU enlargement strategy and help build a united and prosperous Europe.
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InvigoratEU Social Acquis Compliance Scoreboard (D5.1)
The Social Acquis Compliance Scoreboard is a monitoring tool designed to assess the formal legal convergence of EU candidate countries with the EU’s social policy framework. It focuses on seven countries – Albania, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine – tracking annual progress from the signing of each country’s Association Agreement (AA) with the EU until 2024. The baseline is established using the legislation in force at the time of the AA signing, and changes are assessed annually by coding new or amended laws against 100 legally binding EU social policy indicators.
The scoreboard is structured around five dimensions derived from EU law and policy: labour law, health and safety, equality and non-discrimination, social protection and inclusion, and social dialogue. Initially based on 718 indicators, the tool was streamlined for feasibility, ultimately focusing on 100 indicators across 20 attributes. National legal frameworks are assessed by human coders who evaluate whether each EU norm is fully, partially, or not at all incorporated into national law, assigning scores accordingly (0-2 points per indicator). The resulting annual scores provide a percentage-based measure of legal alignment with EU norms. This tool enables dynamic tracking of convergence trends and offers valuable insights to identify obstacles and support mechanisms for deeper EU integration in the social policy domain.
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InvigoratEU Long Policy Report on Russia´s Ambitions and Leverage (D6.1)
This study analyses Russia’s influence in the Eastern Trio (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) and the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) over the past decade, focusing on its political, economic, and societal dimensions. Using the InvigoratEU External Influence Index, a comprehensive empirical tool specifically designed for this study, it systematically measures and compares Russian leverage across nine EU candidate countries. The index captures shifts in influence from 2013 to 2023, highlighting how political-security dynamics, economic dependencies, and societal developments have shaped Moscow’s leverage in the region and the strategic responses of affected states. The findings reveal a general decline in Russian influence, particularly in the political and economic spheres, while societal influence remains more resilient. Political leverage has weakened as countries distance themselves from Moscow, though informal networks and disinformation campaigns persist. Economic influence has been reduced through energy diversification and trade realignment, limiting Russia’s capacity for coercion. However, societal influence remains a key vector, with Russian media, religious networks, and ideological narratives continuing to shape public opinion and foster Euroscepticism. These trends highlight the need for a proactive EU response that reinforces the credibility of enlargement, strengthens energy independence, and counters Russian disinformation. Further gradual integration of candidate countries into the EU could maintain reform momentum and systematically diminish Moscow’s leverage, while targeted investments in energy infrastructure and diversified supply routes would enhance regional resilience and limit Russia’s capacity for economic coercion. Additionally, enhanced support for independent media, fact-checking initiatives, and strategic communication in local languages is essential to mitigating Russian influence. The study underscores that while Russia’s ability to exert direct control is diminishing, its capacity to shape societal narratives remains a challenge, requiring a forward-looking EU strategy that integrates political, economic, and societal dimensions to reinforce resilience and strategic influence in the region.
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Chinese Influence in the Eastern Trio and the Western Balkans: Strategic Fragmentation in the EU's Enlargement Countries (D6.2)
This publication by Matteo Bonomi analyses China’s influence in the Eastern Trio and the Western Balkans.
China’s growing presence in Eastern and Southeastern Europe has become a source of strategic concern for the EU, espescially as global power dynamics shift under the weight of increasing US-China rivalry. Once seen primarily as an economic partner, China is now viewed by many in Europe as a systemic rival, particularly due to its trade practices, ambiguous geopolitical positions – such as its stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and its model of state led development.
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InvigoratEU Long Policy Report on Turkey's Ambitions and Leverage (D6.3)
This report examines Turkey’s influence in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) and the Eastern Trio (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) over the past decade, focusing on political, economic, and societal dimensions. Using the InvigoratEU External Influence Index—an empirical tool specifically designed for this study—it systematically measures and compares Turkish leverage across nine EU candidate and partner countries. The Index captures shifts from 2013 to 2023, offering a cross-country and longitudinal analysis of how Ankara has engaged with the region and how these countries have responded. The findings show that Turkey’s influence is neither uniformly benign nor overtly antagonistic, but shaped by local receptivity, institutional interest, and historical or cultural proximity. Unlike coercive actors, Turkey typically avoids direct confrontation with the EU, opting instead for relational diplomacy, targeted investments, and long-term societal engagement. Political influence has grown modestly, driven by high-level visits, security cooperation, and elite alignment—especially in Kosovo, Ukraine, and North Macedonia. Economic influence has expanded more steadily, fuelled by concessional loans, preferential trade agreements, and infrastructure projects. However, macroeconomic instability in Turkey casts doubt on the long-term sustainability of this outreach. Societal influence emerges as the most persistent and embedded dimension. Through cultural diplomacy, religious networks, educational initiatives, and media presence—including popular Turkish TV series—Turkey has cultivated durable societal linkages, particularly in Muslim-majority areas of the Western Balkans. While this influence is less pronounced in the Eastern Trio, it plays a growing role in public perceptions. These trends suggest that Turkey’s influence is best understood as adaptive and opportunistic rather than expansionist or ideological. It advances where EU presence is weak, particularly at the local level, and where Turkey can act quickly and visibly.
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Long Policy Report on rules alignment of protecting critical infrastructure in interdependent states (D7.1)
The report provides an extensive discussion of evolving landscape of threats to the CI in the EU and selected candidate countries in recent years and the challenges which, while varying depending on particular countries, also are common to all states affected by geopolitical tensions. The analysis of threats to energy, communications, transport and other CI in the Baltic States, Ukraine and the Baltic Sea region shows that hostile activities by authoritarian states, in particular, Russia, or actors linked to them have become increasingly frequent. Their proliferation especially intensiDied after Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, as it also became a wider confrontation between the West and authoritarian powers. The analysis of CI-related policies in Montenegro, Ukraine and Georgia – three candidate countries, which differ in terms of their state of accession into the EU, their connectivity patterns and risks to their CI associated with them – allows to assess different challenges arising to their CI and provision of vital services to society and state and methods of coping with them in each of them. The report concludes with recommendations emphasising the importance of daily practices of partnership and exercises involving all stakeholders of CI ecosystems and cooperation with the EU and NATO partners, taking into account different patterns of interdependencies and existing threats.
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InvigoratEU Policy Paper on Demands for European Security and Defence Cooperation in Ukraine after Russia's Invasion (D8.3)
The European security outlook, and European support for Ukraine in particular, has changed dramatically. The EU is Ukraine’s key ally, a fact that Ukrainians fully appreciate. The full-scale war has created momentum for previously impossible forms of assistance and cooperation. In the first days of the full-scale war, EU member states considered sending only helmets to Ukraine, whereas in 2025, the military support sent by EU member states to Ukraine is worth 60 billion euros, including advanced and lethal weapon systems, as well as supplies ranging from ammunition to missiles and fighter jets. The most recent plans for security guarantees for a post-ceasefire Ukraine, including air policing, maritime operations, and a reassurance force building capacities for Ukraine’s land forces, demonstrate the cumulative change in the willingness of European states to respond to Ukraine’s security needs
Find the document here: https://zenodo.org/records/17366217
Analytical Glossary
The Analytical Glossary by Funda Tekin and Hannah Brandt provides detailed and concise definitions, terminology, concepts and benchmarks as key reference document for InvigoratEU research.
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InvigoratEU conceptual background paper
The InvigoratEU conceptual background paper by Funda Tekin, Hannah Brandt, Pol Bargués and Ramūnas Vilpišauskas provides academic reflections on Europe’s resilience and a (re)invigorated EU enlargement and neighbourhood strategy. It first outlines the milestones of the EU’s policies with its neighbourhood. A guiding question is whether and if so in how far the EU’s enlargement policy can live up to its reputation of being one of the EU’s most successful foreign policies again – a label that has seemed too ambitious for the past two decades in view of the countries in the Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans. Subsequently, the concept of resilience is introduced and critically assessed in the context of EU foreign policy. The InvigoratEU Triple-R-Approach: Reforming, Responding, Rebuilding guides the remaining part of the study, in which the challenges and potentials of EU enlargement and neighbourhood policies will be assessed. These will be analysed in terms of contribution to democratic consolidation, conflict prevention, capacity-building, enhancing security and the protection against hybrid threats and potentials for connectivity and sustainable (social and economic) development.
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Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership candidate countries’ path to the EU: present and future
This publication by Víctor Burguete, Oriol Farrés, Julian Plottka and Kai Ole Vorberg aims to identify critical drivers and trends for Eastern Partnership (EaP) candidate countries and the Western Balkans (WB) in their path to the EU. To visualize existential threats, challenges and opportunities.
How? Literature review of foresight studies concerning the EU, and its candidate countries from the Eastern Partnership (i.e. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) and Western Balkans (i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia). This is important to highlight diverging trajectories and the areas in which cooperation and integration with the EU are most needed. If there are specific gaps in foresight studies, data will be used to complete the analysis.
Find the document Horizon scanning for InvigoratEU’s visioning process.